isnt going anywhere. The Blue Jays have formally announced a 14-year contract extension for their superstar first baseman, one that guarantees the four-time All-Star a whopping $500MM from 2026-39. Hed previously been slated to become a free agent following the 2025 season. The contract does not contain any deferred money or opt-out opportunities but does provide Guerrero with a full no-trade clause, setting the stage for him to spend his entire career in Toronto. Guerrero is represented by PRIME. Notably, that the $500MM will come in the form of a whopping $325MM signing bonus, paid out in annual installments over his contracts 14-year term, with the remaining $175MM constituting his salary. That doesnt change the luxury-tax picture for the Blue Jays, but it does provide tax benefits to Guerrero. Signing bonuses are taxed based on a players official residence, and although Guerrero plays his home games in Toronto, hes legally a Florida resident, where theres no state income tax. Further, Rosenthal rightly points out that signing bonuses are paid out even in the event of a potential labor stoppage, whereas player salaries could be withheld or prorated. Effectively, the mammoth signing bonus provides Guerrero an avenue and safety net to take home as much of that mammoth guarantee as po sible. Its the second-largest deal in MLB history by measure of net present value, trailing only s 15-year, $765MM contract with the Mets. While s deal with the Dodgers was originally reported as a historic 10-year, $700MM deal, the overwhelming slate of deferred money $68MM annually knocked the contracts present-day value down to between $438MM and $461MM. Guerreros $35.714MM average annual value , although once factoring in deferrals in the contracts of and , Guerrero could sneak into the top 10 with that hefty mark. Guerrero rather famously set a deadline of the start of spring training that without a deal. He left the door cracked for an agreement, however, stating that while he no longer planned to participate in back-and-forth negotiations, hed listen to any offers the team presented and leave any contract talk to his agents. In the aftermath of that soft deadline, specifics regarding and a came to light. Its not entirely uncommon for contract talks to continue beyond self-imposed deadlines if the sides are close enough, with standing as a notable recent example of a player who set a deadline (in his case, Opening Day) for extension talks before ultimately signing after said deadline had pa sed. , , , and are among the other players to have signed extensions since the season began who presumably opened negotiations with their clubs during spring training. Both previous talks between the sides and reports regarding the latest framework have centered around a 14-year pact. Thats a reflection of Guerreros youth, as he only just turned 26 years old last month. Its a somewhat similar situation to that of Soto, who hit free agency right around his 26th birthday. Given his youth and talent, he was able to parlay a frenzied free agency into a record-shattering 15-year deal worth $765MM. Prior to Soto moving the goalposts, the reported $500MM value of the deal Guerrero and the Jays are discu sing would have been a record-breaking deal. As already noted, Ohtanis ten-year deal is valued quite differently when weighing for deferred money; the MLBPA pegs his net-present annual value at $43.78MM, while the league itself posits a $46.06MM number. Ballparking the guarantee around $450MM was still a record at the time, with and his $365MM holding the previous top guarantee. Ohtanis overall guarantee and AAV both fell to a distant second with the Soto deal, and now Guerrero can now lay claim to pa sing him as well, given the lack of deferred money in his half-billion-dollar guarantee. Guerreros track record isnt quite as elite as that of Soto, who is in a cla s all his own as an offensive talent with a career wRC+ (158) in the same ballpark as Guerreros peak seasons. Even so, his numbers are excellent and hes only a year older. When Guerrero is at his best, hes the closest comparison to Soto in the game in terms of age and overall offensive ability. For the Jays, Guerrero has been the face of the franchise for a long time. After the clubs postseason appearances in 2015 and 2016, they entered a quick rebuild period that saw them post losing records for the next three years. As such, many fans rested their hopes on an emerging core headlined by young prospects like Guerrero and . Guerreros initial major league work Alex Debrincat Jersey was good but not great, though it came at an age when most prospects are still playing in college or in the minors. He hit .269/.336/.442 over the 2019 and 2020 seasons for a 107 wRC+, indicating he was 7% better than league average at the plate. To be holding his own in the big leagues during his age-20 and -21 seasons was still a notable accomplishment, even if he wasnt immediately playing at All-Star levels. Any doubts about Guerreros ability to reach the ceiling he flashed as a prospect were quelled in 2021, as he hit 48 home runs, drew walks at a 12.3% clip and only struck out 15.8% of the time. His .311/.401/.601 batting line led to a wRC+ of 166. He would have won the American League Most Valuable Player award that year, if not for an absurd two-way season from Ohtani. Instead, he finished runner-up. Guerrero couldnt quite carry that MVP-caliber offensive output over into his next two seasons. He hit a combined .269/.341/.462 in 2022 and 2023 for a 125 wRC+. While thats still strong production, its obviously a drop from his 2021 campaign, and 2023 in particular cast him as closer to pedestrian than superstar as he posted a 118 wRC+ with just 1.3 fWAR. Fortunately, Guerrero helped to quell his doubters when he cranked things back up last year, slashing .323/.396/.544 for a 165 wRC+ and finishing sixth in a crowded AL MVP field. Taken in totality, the four years beginning with Guerreros 2021 breakout saw him produce a .293/.370/.517 batting line with a 10.2% walk rate and just a 15.2% strikeout rate. Thats 45% better than league-average after weighting for home park and league run-scoring environment, by measure of wRC+. And, as Guerreros minuscule strikeout rate indicates, hes hardly just a one-dimensional slugger. He has some of the games best contact skills and pitch recognition, and he consistently delivers elite rankings in batted-ball metrics like exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate. Thats not to say that there is no risk. Despite a 2022 Gold Glove Award, Guerreros defense is generally viewed as questionable and hes not a burner on the basepaths. On any kind of ma sive deal like this, the signing club probably knows it wont look pristine all the way to the final season, as the Tigers and Angels could tell you about their deals for and . The Jays will be hoping that they get piles of value from Guerreros prime years, both in terms of on-field and off-field value, in order to ease the pain of his eventual decline phase. Certainly, it would have been cheaper to extend Guerrero earlier in his career, as players generally gain earning power as they get closer to free agency. However, Guerreros oscillating results perhaps gave the Jays pause about making a significant commitment to him. From Guerreros perspective, he was an incredibly talented prospect who received a hefty signing bonus and quickly put himself on track to reach free agency at such a young age. That gave him ample incentive to bet on himself, which presumably made finding a price amenable to both sides rather challenging. The stars have aligned recently. Guerreros 2024 season seemed to prove that 2021 wasnt a fluke. Meanwhile, the Jays have attempted to secure mega deals with other players and fallen short. They were heavily tied to Ohtani, Soto, and plenty of other players who would have been headline-grabbing acquisitions, but none on those pursuits panned out. Prior to todays extension of Guerrero, the largest deal in franchise history was s $150MM guarantee on a six-year pact, which is now more than four years old. With president/CEO Mark Shapiro and general manager Ro s Atkins both nearing the ends of their respective contracts and the Jays disappointing in 2024, it has been suggested they are under pre sure for a big public relations victory. The inability to close deals with marquee free agents like Soto, Ohtani and (among others) left the Jays with plenty of future payroll space to commit to Guerrero. Bichette, , and are all free agents at seasons end. After 2026, Springer, and are slated to hit the open market. is under contract through 2028, but has an opt-out after 2026. will have an opt-out chance after 2027. and could be the two players making notable money still on the team by 2028 if those opt-out clauses are exercised, and Guerrero is the only player on the books beyond 2030. The Guerrero extension takes the projected top free agent off next years market, leaving as the clear top bat available. Japanese slugger will ahead of his age-26 season, adding an interesting and likely very expensive wild card to the position-player market. On the pitching side, , and will be some of the most attractive names. That will be a tough development for fans of other clubs but it could be a huge benefit to those other free agents, especially Tucker, who will become the uncontested best free agent hitter available in a market that looks increasingly starved for impact offense without Guerrero at the top. Dominican journalist Mike Rodriguez that the two sides were closing in on a deal worth at least $500MM. USA Todays Bob Nightengale that it was over a term of 14 years. Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that an agreement was in place and that there were no deferrals, while his colleague Ben Nicholson-Smith that the contract did not contain opt-out language. Jon Heyman of the New York Post Guerreros no-trade clause. Photo courtesy of Brad Penner, Imagn Images. Gordie Howe Jersey